Friday, October 1, 2010

Making Money With Options

I love Quora. I don’t know what it is about the service, but something makes interesting people give very interesting answers to a huge range of questions. Take Paul Buchheit, for example.


Buchheit is an angel investor and co-founder of FriendFeed, the social aggregation and conversation service that Facebook acquired last year (he now works at Facebook doing well, something). But he’s perhaps best known as the key person behind the creation of Gmail for Google. He also had a hand in the creation of AdSense/AdWords as well — you know, the way Google makes all their money. Point is, when he compares Facebook to Google, it’s worth listening to. And that’s exactly what he did a couple days ago on Quora.


I believe many people were (and still are) significantly undervaluing Facebook equity. It has the potential to be worth more than Google,” Buchheit wrote.


That’s a big statement. But depending on who you talk to, it’s either crazy or a certainty. Buchheit obviously has a vested interest in saying that — quite literally. With the Facebook deal, he and his fellow FriendFeeders were undoubtedly given a nice basket of stock options. At the time, it was believed that the total deal was worth about $50 million, with around $30 million of that in Facebook stock. In other words, if Facebook is one day worth more than Google, Buchheit will be very, very rich.


All of this came up because someone on Quora posed the question: ”Is Paul Buchheit considered a successful entrepreneur?” — and Buchheit himself responded. “I don’t know, but I’m happy with how things worked out :),” he led off before making his prediction.


At the time of the FriendFeed deal, Facebook was valued around $6.5 billion — “silly-low“, as Buchheit puts it. Today, on SecondMarket, Facebook’s valuation is over $30 billion. This means that the roughly $30 million in Facebook stock (we’ll just say that’s accurate for now, but who knows) is worth something north of $125 million. That all of a sudden makes the FriendFeed acquisition worth something like $150 million (again, hypothetically)!


I think re-doing the math on this deal in a couple of years should be very interesting,” Buchheit concludes with.


Google’s current market cap value is about $165 billion. If Facebook is to get that high, they’ll have to grow in value six times over (and they’ll undoubtedly have to be public in order for that to happen). That would make FriendFeed’s (again, hypothetical) shares worth over $750 million, with the total deal value approaching $800 million.


Wow.


If Facebook gets anywhere near that in value, Buchheit is right. He’ll be seen as a very successful entrepreneur.



's play hasn't been good enough to keep a hold on a spot.


Jordan Hendry was the seventh defenseman last year who played a significant role into the playoffs, and he should feel safe about a job somewhere at the bottom of the rotation. However, like Scott and Boynton, he isn't an 82-game player, and the Hawks shouldn't feel comfortable about carrying three players who can't/shouldn't play every night.





This is where Nick Leddy comes in.


Leddy is arguably the top prospect in the Hawks organization and has been overwhelming the entire summer. Starting in prospect camp, when he didn't have a pro contract, Leddy has garnered the attention of Hawks' brass and has received nothing but compliments from the coaching staff during camp. He tied with Brian Campbell for the team lead, skating 5:24 on the power play in Friday night's loss against Detroit's "A-Team," and also skated 1:52 short-handed. His performance, that totalled 19:44 total ice time against the best Detroit has to offer, showed that he's ready for the big time.


Leddy's situation is also different than the forwards that have been sent to Rockford. He was on record saying that he patterned his game after Campbell and Duncan Keith before becoming part of the Blackhawks organization last year, and his development could actually be accelerated by staying in Chicago.


This could cost a forward their job though.


Because Leddy has a $1.4M cap number, if the Hawks carried him on the NHL roster they would probably stick with 22 rather than 23 players. However, because Scott has played both forward and defenseman in his career, the Hawks have the versatility to do this without hurting Quenneville's options.


Here's how I see the defensive group starting the season:



  • Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook

  • Brian Campbell, Niklas Hjalmarsson

  • Nick Leddy, Jordan Hendry/John Scott


If the Hawks carried the 20 players proposed here, plus goalies Corey Crawford and Marty Turco, the Hawks could carry a team that's still over $600k under the cap and is as fast if not faster than last year's team when camp broke for the season.


The other important reality to remember is that the team that breaks camp is rarely the same team at Christmas and is almost never the same in April. Remember Aaron Johnson? And Cam Barker? That might be Tomas Kopecky or Jordan Hendry this year, but the players the Hawks have available and ready to start the regular season should excite their fans.







Reese Schonfeld: Third Quarter Cable <b>News</b>: Bad <b>News</b> for All <b>...</b>

Could it be that the decline in news viewers is symptomatic of a general and genuine disgust by news viewers who are just fed up with the kind of news being fed to them?

Small Business <b>News</b>: The White Paper Overview

Pundits still say they are a great way to develop credibility for your business easy to distribute in their popular current PDF format and also, if done right,

Feds Sue Fox <b>News</b> Over Reporter Catherine Herridge&#39;s Charges Of <b>...</b>

WASHINGTON — Federal authorities are suing the Fox News Network for allegedly retaliating against a reporter after she complained about unequal pay and job conditions based on her gender and age. The Equal Employment Opportunity ...


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Reese Schonfeld: Third Quarter Cable <b>News</b>: Bad <b>News</b> for All <b>...</b>

Could it be that the decline in news viewers is symptomatic of a general and genuine disgust by news viewers who are just fed up with the kind of news being fed to them?

Small Business <b>News</b>: The White Paper Overview

Pundits still say they are a great way to develop credibility for your business easy to distribute in their popular current PDF format and also, if done right,

Feds Sue Fox <b>News</b> Over Reporter Catherine Herridge&#39;s Charges Of <b>...</b>

WASHINGTON — Federal authorities are suing the Fox News Network for allegedly retaliating against a reporter after she complained about unequal pay and job conditions based on her gender and age. The Equal Employment Opportunity ...


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I love Quora. I don’t know what it is about the service, but something makes interesting people give very interesting answers to a huge range of questions. Take Paul Buchheit, for example.


Buchheit is an angel investor and co-founder of FriendFeed, the social aggregation and conversation service that Facebook acquired last year (he now works at Facebook doing well, something). But he’s perhaps best known as the key person behind the creation of Gmail for Google. He also had a hand in the creation of AdSense/AdWords as well — you know, the way Google makes all their money. Point is, when he compares Facebook to Google, it’s worth listening to. And that’s exactly what he did a couple days ago on Quora.


I believe many people were (and still are) significantly undervaluing Facebook equity. It has the potential to be worth more than Google,” Buchheit wrote.


That’s a big statement. But depending on who you talk to, it’s either crazy or a certainty. Buchheit obviously has a vested interest in saying that — quite literally. With the Facebook deal, he and his fellow FriendFeeders were undoubtedly given a nice basket of stock options. At the time, it was believed that the total deal was worth about $50 million, with around $30 million of that in Facebook stock. In other words, if Facebook is one day worth more than Google, Buchheit will be very, very rich.


All of this came up because someone on Quora posed the question: ”Is Paul Buchheit considered a successful entrepreneur?” — and Buchheit himself responded. “I don’t know, but I’m happy with how things worked out :),” he led off before making his prediction.


At the time of the FriendFeed deal, Facebook was valued around $6.5 billion — “silly-low“, as Buchheit puts it. Today, on SecondMarket, Facebook’s valuation is over $30 billion. This means that the roughly $30 million in Facebook stock (we’ll just say that’s accurate for now, but who knows) is worth something north of $125 million. That all of a sudden makes the FriendFeed acquisition worth something like $150 million (again, hypothetically)!


I think re-doing the math on this deal in a couple of years should be very interesting,” Buchheit concludes with.


Google’s current market cap value is about $165 billion. If Facebook is to get that high, they’ll have to grow in value six times over (and they’ll undoubtedly have to be public in order for that to happen). That would make FriendFeed’s (again, hypothetical) shares worth over $750 million, with the total deal value approaching $800 million.


Wow.


If Facebook gets anywhere near that in value, Buchheit is right. He’ll be seen as a very successful entrepreneur.



's play hasn't been good enough to keep a hold on a spot.


Jordan Hendry was the seventh defenseman last year who played a significant role into the playoffs, and he should feel safe about a job somewhere at the bottom of the rotation. However, like Scott and Boynton, he isn't an 82-game player, and the Hawks shouldn't feel comfortable about carrying three players who can't/shouldn't play every night.





This is where Nick Leddy comes in.


Leddy is arguably the top prospect in the Hawks organization and has been overwhelming the entire summer. Starting in prospect camp, when he didn't have a pro contract, Leddy has garnered the attention of Hawks' brass and has received nothing but compliments from the coaching staff during camp. He tied with Brian Campbell for the team lead, skating 5:24 on the power play in Friday night's loss against Detroit's "A-Team," and also skated 1:52 short-handed. His performance, that totalled 19:44 total ice time against the best Detroit has to offer, showed that he's ready for the big time.


Leddy's situation is also different than the forwards that have been sent to Rockford. He was on record saying that he patterned his game after Campbell and Duncan Keith before becoming part of the Blackhawks organization last year, and his development could actually be accelerated by staying in Chicago.


This could cost a forward their job though.


Because Leddy has a $1.4M cap number, if the Hawks carried him on the NHL roster they would probably stick with 22 rather than 23 players. However, because Scott has played both forward and defenseman in his career, the Hawks have the versatility to do this without hurting Quenneville's options.


Here's how I see the defensive group starting the season:



  • Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook

  • Brian Campbell, Niklas Hjalmarsson

  • Nick Leddy, Jordan Hendry/John Scott


If the Hawks carried the 20 players proposed here, plus goalies Corey Crawford and Marty Turco, the Hawks could carry a team that's still over $600k under the cap and is as fast if not faster than last year's team when camp broke for the season.


The other important reality to remember is that the team that breaks camp is rarely the same team at Christmas and is almost never the same in April. Remember Aaron Johnson? And Cam Barker? That might be Tomas Kopecky or Jordan Hendry this year, but the players the Hawks have available and ready to start the regular season should excite their fans.







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Reese Schonfeld: Third Quarter Cable <b>News</b>: Bad <b>News</b> for All <b>...</b>

Could it be that the decline in news viewers is symptomatic of a general and genuine disgust by news viewers who are just fed up with the kind of news being fed to them?

Small Business <b>News</b>: The White Paper Overview

Pundits still say they are a great way to develop credibility for your business easy to distribute in their popular current PDF format and also, if done right,

Feds Sue Fox <b>News</b> Over Reporter Catherine Herridge&#39;s Charges Of <b>...</b>

WASHINGTON — Federal authorities are suing the Fox News Network for allegedly retaliating against a reporter after she complained about unequal pay and job conditions based on her gender and age. The Equal Employment Opportunity ...


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Reese Schonfeld: Third Quarter Cable <b>News</b>: Bad <b>News</b> for All <b>...</b>

Could it be that the decline in news viewers is symptomatic of a general and genuine disgust by news viewers who are just fed up with the kind of news being fed to them?

Small Business <b>News</b>: The White Paper Overview

Pundits still say they are a great way to develop credibility for your business easy to distribute in their popular current PDF format and also, if done right,

Feds Sue Fox <b>News</b> Over Reporter Catherine Herridge&#39;s Charges Of <b>...</b>

WASHINGTON — Federal authorities are suing the Fox News Network for allegedly retaliating against a reporter after she complained about unequal pay and job conditions based on her gender and age. The Equal Employment Opportunity ...


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Reese Schonfeld: Third Quarter Cable <b>News</b>: Bad <b>News</b> for All <b>...</b>

Could it be that the decline in news viewers is symptomatic of a general and genuine disgust by news viewers who are just fed up with the kind of news being fed to them?

Small Business <b>News</b>: The White Paper Overview

Pundits still say they are a great way to develop credibility for your business easy to distribute in their popular current PDF format and also, if done right,

Feds Sue Fox <b>News</b> Over Reporter Catherine Herridge&#39;s Charges Of <b>...</b>

WASHINGTON — Federal authorities are suing the Fox News Network for allegedly retaliating against a reporter after she complained about unequal pay and job conditions based on her gender and age. The Equal Employment Opportunity ...


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