Friday, March 11, 2011

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Founded in 2009 by Amanda Steinberg, DailyWorth is known as a daily e mail newsletter that features info on financial literacy and revenue management skewed towards a female audience. DailyWorth’s topics range from the right way to organize your finances to tax tips to conserving assistance. And DailyWorth has an remarkable editorial staff to make written content. MP Dunleavey, formerly a private finance columnist using the New york Occasions and presently a contributor with Income magazine, is leading DailyWorth’s editorial crew.

Even with unions’ lengthy hatred of Scott Walker, the new governor is moving to handle each the signs or symptoms on the condition and therefore the sickness itself-the public-sector union scheme that has molested Wisconsin’s taxpayers and their young children by gaming the program. Unions like Wisconsin’s teachers’ union [WEAC] (which was Wisconsin’s biggest-spending lobby in 2009) were extraordinarily adept at fixing the model via spending millions to elect politicians who, in flip, reward the unions with the expense on the taxpayers.

the Wisconsin battle, when compared to private-sector negotiations is about: one) the Scope of Bargaining, 2) Union “Income” Security [Right-to-Work vs. Compelled Dues], three) regardless of whether Wisconsin should be the unions’ dues assortment agency [payroll deduction of dues], and 4) regardless if public-sector unions should be ‘recertified’ by holding elections each individual yr.

place the photographs on line to demonstrate our projects staff at msnbc.com, and photographer Jim Seida stated, why don’t we just publish it being a slide show? I was skeptical at first - would that crimp the writing? - but during the finish I used to be advocating doing it this way once the picture staff was skeptical. I considered far more folks would go through via it by doing this, and it could be value an experiment.”


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Making Money Now

On Monday night time, I watched my foremost, The Previous Word host Lawrence O’Donnell.
Although O’Donnell laudably experimented with to concentrate the audience’s consideration onand hopefully very last, Charlie Sheen trainwreck interview, courtesy of the tragic undertow that threatens to pull Sheen below for excellent, I used to be overtaken, not through the pulling on the thread, and then the voracious audience he serves. It did not make me sad, it produced me angry.

In terms of celebrities, we are able to be considered a heartless country, basking within their misfortunes like nude sunbathers at Schadenfreude Seaside. The impulse is understandable, to some degree. It may be grating to listen to complaints from most people who have fun with privileges that the majority of us can not even imagine. If you ever can not muster up some compassion for Charlie Sheen, who may make far more funds for any day’s deliver the results than most of us will make in a very decade’s time, I guess I cannot blame you.



With all the fast tempo of occasions on the internet and then the material revolution sparked through the Net, it is pretty hassle-free for your technological innovation business to presume it is different: continually breaking new ground and accomplishing stuff that nobody has actually completed ahead of.

But one can find other sorts of corporation that have currently undergone several of the same exact radical shifts, and also have just as outstanding a stake during the potential.

Take healthcare, as an illustration.

We regularly imagine of it as being a tremendous, lumbering beast, but in truth, medication has undergone a series of revolutions in the previous 200 a long time which have been at the least equal to individuals we see in technology and material.

Much less understandable, but nevertheless inside the norms of human nature, may be the impulse to rubberneck, to slow down and consider the carnage of Charlie spectacle of Sheen’s unraveling, but of your blithe interviewer Sheen’s lifestyle as we pass it while in the most suitable lane of our everyday lives. To get truthful, it may be difficult for people today to discern the variation amongst a run-of-the-mill focus whore, and an honest-to-goodness, circling the drain tragedy-to-be. On its personal merits, a quote like “I Am On the Drug. It’s Known as Charlie Sheen” is sheer genius, and we cannot all be expected to consider the full measure of someone’s daily life every last time we hear something humorous.

Quick forward to 2011 and I am wanting to investigate would mean of being a bit more business-like about my hobbies (mainly music). Through the stop of January I had manned up and commenced to advertise my weblogs. I had made various unique weblogs, which have been contributed to by buddies and colleagues. I promoted these actions by way of Facebook and Twitter.


Second: the small abomination the Gang of Five on the Supream Court gave us a 12 months or so back (Citizens Inebriated) genuinely contains a touch bouncing betty of its very own that may really effectively go off inside the faces of Govs Wanker, Sacitch, Krysty, and J.O. Daniels. Seeing as this ruling extended the principle of “personhood” to both equally businesses and unions, to experiment with to deny them any right to operate inside of the legal framework that they had been organized beneath deprives these “persons” with the freedoms of speech, association and movement. Which suggests (as soon as once more, quoting law school educated family members) that possibly the courts ought to uphold these rights for that unions (as individual “persons” as assured from the Federal (and most state) constitutions, or they have to declare that these attempts at stripping or limiting union rights should utilize to primary companies, also.

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It’s nearing two weeks since unions and their cohorts on the Left have thrown a nationwide fit over Scott Walker’s solution to what is ailing Wisconsin. Unions and Democrats have made Wisconsin their cause célèbre by deploying OFA astroturf, the big talking heads, as well as recruiting just about every known Grateful Dead concert attendee on their mailing lists into Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Democratic state senators (now humorously known as fleebaggers) comically continue to hold the state hostage over an issue of union power, politics and money—nothing more and nothing less.



Despite unions’ long hatred of Scott Walker, the new governor is moving to address both the symptoms of the disease and the disease itself—the public-sector union scheme that has molested Wisconsin’s taxpayers and their children by gaming the system. Unions like Wisconsin’s teachers’ union [WEAC] (which was Wisconsin’s biggest-spending lobby in 2009) have been extraordinarily adept at fixing the system through spending millions to elect politicians who, in turn, reward the unions at the expense of the taxpayers.


Now, in response to Walker’s proposals, the Left has gone overboard in their attempt to protect their stranglehold on Wisconsin taxpayers. Even though unions have made clear that their fight is not about their wages or benefits (they’ve offered concessions), they’ve made the fight all about their “right to be unionized” and the fictitious right to “collective bargaining”—which makes their cause even more despotic.


In making Madison into something reminiscent of the spectacle of the 1960s, unions, Democrats and their liberal cohorts are attempting to make the Wisconsin union battle into a civil rights battle, when it is not.  In fact, the Wisconsin fight, when compared to private-sector negotiations is about: 1) the Scope of Bargaining, 2) Union “Income” Security [Right-to-Work vs. Forced Dues], 3) whether Wisconsin should be the unions’ dues collection agency [payroll deduction of dues], and 4) whether public-sector unions should be ‘recertified’ by holding elections every year.



Contrary to the Left’s hyperbole, Scott Walker’s proposals do nothing to eliminate public-sector workers’ right to association, assemblage, or to petition their government. Even pretending that it is a “rights” issue is a mistake. There is nothing in the U.S. Constitution that requires a government to engage in a back and forth negotiation with a collective of workers. In a poignant piece entitled There is No Right to Collective Bargaining, Public Service Research Foundation President David Denholm summarizes the problem with the unions’ argument, stating:


A law granting public-sector unions monopoly bargaining privileges gives a union, a special interest group, two bites at the apple. First, it uses its political clout to elect public officials. Then it negotiates with the very same officials.


When you consider that between 70 and 80 percent of all local government expenditures are personnel costs, you begin to get an idea of the magnitude of the power such laws give unions.


Not only is there no right to collective bargaining in public employment, it is wrong. Collective bargaining distorts and corrupts democratic government.


Collective bargaining is a process for employer-employee relations that was designed for the private sector. This process served as the model for the development of public-sector collective bargaining without taking into account the fundamental differences between the two sectors.


As Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour explains:


“When they have collective bargaining in Wisconsin, on one side of the table there’s state employee unions or the local employee unions. On the other side of the table are politicians that they paid for the election of those politicians,” Barbour said. “Now, who represents the taxpayers in that negotiation? Well, actually, nobody.”


Even Newsweek’s Evan Thomas noted on Sunday [via Newsbusters]:


The Democrats really depend on these public employee unions in a lot of states for their support and for their political muscle, and public employee unions got a problem here. I want to distinguish between unions and public employee unions. Unions obviously are critical, but in the public sector, public employee unions have a pretty easy time getting a lot of benefits because nobody’s really pushing back all that hard.


Admittedly, Walker’s proposals are a threat to unions in several ways. As Walker’s proposals determine:



  1. The extent of what unions will be allowed to bargain about. Walker’s proposal limits bargaining to wages only, effectively eliminating the WEA Trust monopoly which gets its money from local school boards and runs it through a union-run insurance company.

  2. Whether unions can have workers fired for not paying union dues. According to its most recent financial record on file, WEAC (the teachers’ union) raked in over $25 million in 2009. Walker’s proposal makes paying union dues voluntary, as opposed to mandatory. This goes to the lifeblood of any union. If, for example, 20% of those teachers who are currently required to pay union dues as a condition of employment opt out, WEAC could lose up to $5 million a year in revenue. [It is noteworthy that, in the private-sector, the SEIU will be conducting its second strike at a Pennsylvania medical center over the issue of mandatory dues.]

  3. Whether the state will continue being the unions’ dues collector. Walker’s proposal eliminates’ the employers’ payroll deduction of union dues. Again, while it is commonplace for unions to negotiate payroll deduction, there is nothing anywhere (in private or public sector law) that states that it is an employers’ duty to be a union’s collection agency.

  4. Whether the unions will have to ‘re-certify’ every year to maintain representational status. Of all of Walker’s proposals, this seems to be one that could be considered a ‘throw away’ item in negotiations. If Walker’s other proposals get enacted, and union-represented employees feel that the union is worthless, they can initiate an election themselves every calendar under existing law [see Section 111.83(5)[h]] .


Given the ability of the unions and their co-conspirators on the Left to hijack the issue in Wisconsin over these last two weeks, there appears no way for a “win-win” compromise to be worked out. One side or the other will win. Either the unions and the Left, or taxpayers will prevail.


If the Left wins, all chances of reforming public-sector unions will be tossed aside by weak-kneed Republicans who will then be held hostage by temper-tantrum throwing Democrats (see Indiana for example). In addition, the Left has already painted the entire Republicans party with bulls eyes and has for years. Therefore, there is no reason for GOP governors like Scott Walker, Chris Christie and John Kasich to back down, which puts the Left in an untenable situation as well.


In the meantime, the disciples of Saul Alinsky will continue their prattle, attempting to convince America that the Battle of Wisconsin is something more than a fight over union power, politics and money…even though it’s not.


_________________


“I bring reason to your ears, and, in language as plain as ABC, hold up truth to your eyes.” Thomas Paine, December 23, 1776


X-posted.





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Saturday, March 5, 2011

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Mortgage loan servicers negotiated 1.76 million permanent loan modifications for homeowners last year, but more than two-thirds of them were completed in-house and not part of the federal government’s Home Affordable Modification Program.


A year-end report Wednesday from Hope Now, a private-sector group of mortgage servicers, investors, insurers and non-profit counselors, showed that mortgage servicers arranged 1.24 million proprietary permanent modifications, compared to the 512,712 modifications begun under the government’s more rigorous HAMP program.


It’s unclear how many of those permanent in-house modifications received during 2010 are still current. On Monday, the Treasury Department said one in five homeowners who received a permanent HAMP modification during 2009’s final quarter was at least 60 days delinquent on their mortgage payments at the end of 2010.


In an indication of the serious difficulties that lie ahead for consumers and the housing market this year, the number of consumers who were at least 60 days behind on their mortgage totaled 2.87 million in December. Still, 60-day loan delinquencies are 30 percent lower than they were at the end of December 2009.


Hope Now’s data also showed a significant fourth-quarter drop in foreclosure starts and sales, compared with the third-quarter, but that is largely the result of mortgage servicers temporarily suspending foreclosure actions while they and states investigated their back-office procedures.




John Paulson, of the eponymous uber-hedge fund did an hour-long interview with the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission.  I listened to it (thanks to NYT Dealbook, although not sure where they got it from), and really, I got a kick out of it even though I think my carpal-tunnel is really flaring up now.  Anyway, without further ado, here's what the man behind the Greatest Trade Ever has to say about the Financial Crisis…


When asked what he saw, when, and why he decided to get short, he said “First thing we noticed was that real estate market appeared very frothy, values rose very rapidly, which led me to believe real estate markets were over valued.”  That’s pretty simple/straightforward, no?  I think it’s pretty interesting that he said the 3 homes he’s bought were all out of foreclosure, and they’d increased in value 4-5x over a 2-3 year period through ~'2005.  Apparently the impetus for the research that led to The Trade was literally staring him in the face every time he got home from work!


He explained his approach, and the way he put it makes me really think the guys who didn’t leave their trading desks & “never saw the bubble/crash coming” really had their heads buried in the sand deeper than I previously thought.  As Paulson said, “Credit markets were very frothy, very little attention paid to risk, spreads were very low, we thought when those securities correct, it could present opportunities on short side.”


Their research approach was pretty straight-forward: Focus on subprime, where they were amazed at how low quality the underwriting was, and how low the credit characteristics were on the loans.  They found the average FICO  was around 630, and over half of the loans were for cash-out refi’s, which were based on appraised, not sales prices (so “value” could be manipulated).  For many of these loans, LTV was very, very high, 80, 90, 100% with many of them concentrated in California (no surprise there).  Close to have of the mortgages they looked at were of the stated-income, no-doc variety.


Those who did report incomes had D/I ratios of > 40% before taxes and insurance.  80% of them were ARMs, so-called 2/28’s with teaser rates around 6-7% for those first 2 years, but after they reset, the rates were L+ 600bps which at the point would have doubled the interest rate on these loans, and Paulson & Co thought there was very little - if any - chance borrowers would be able to afford the higher payments.


Once the rates reset, the only thing these borrowers could do would be to sell, refinance, or default.  These were people spending > 40% of their gross income on their mortgages already, once the rate jumped up after the teaser period, they expected that many borrowers would simply default, and the price of the RMBS into which these loans were securitized would fall drastically, while the price of the protection (CDS, etc) Paulson bought on them would skyrocket.


Paulson & co also went much further in their analysis, well-beyond what many of those on Wall Street were doing.  In May, 2006, they researched growth of 100 MSA’s and found that there was a correlation between growth and the performance of subprime loans originated within them.  As growth rates slowed, defaults rose.  From 2000-2005, they found that with 0% growth, there’d be losses of around 7% in the mortgage pools.


When they looked at the structure of the RMBS they found the average securitization had 18 separate tranches and that the BBB level only had 5.6% subordination, essentially, once losses surpassed that point, the tranches would become impaired, and if they reached 7% losses (what Paulson thought would happen once home price appreciation only slowed to 0%), the entire tranch would get wiped-out entirely.


By mid-2006, home prices not only had slowed to 0% but were actually decreasing, albeit slowly, only about 1%.  Even still, demand from institutional investors was so great, spreads tightened to 100bps. Why?  Because as Paulson went on to explain, institutional investors were buying up the BBB tranches (the lowest investment grade ones) in hoards.


While he didn’t say it, I will (for the umpteenth time!): This is what happens when institutions effectively outsource credit research to the Ratings Agencies, even though many had/have internal credit analysis groups (ahem IKB ahem).  They buy the highest-yielding security you can find that meets your investment guidelines, which meant that for many, they could only buy securities deemed by the brain trusts at the Ratings Agencies as “Investment Grade.”


Paulson started their credit fund in June, 2006, and as he explained, it wasn’t really as simple as it may seem. Historically - going back to about WWII - the average loss on subprime securities was 60bps, nowhere near what Paulson & Co expected was about to happen.  As he said “according to the mortgage people, there’d never been a default on an investment grade (IG) mortgage security.”  These same people were also of the mindset that they’ll NEVER get to the levels where the BBB tranches are impaired let alone wiped out completely.   These were also the same people who said that not since the Great Depression there hadn’t been a single period where home prices declined nation-wide.  These same people thought, worst case, home price growth would drop to 0% temporarily and then return to growth, just like before.


Why would “the mortgage people” expect anything else?  From their desks on the trading floors in Manhattan, Stamford, London, and everywhere else, things looked just peachy!  Spreads were tightening, demand for product was up, and more importantly, so were bonuses!  As far as they knew, the mammoth mortgage finance machine they’d created, based on their complex models and securities was working perfectly…


Paulson also made a distinction missed by many if not most: Everyone was looking at nominal home price appreciation, but real appreciation numbers were much different.  Going back 25+ years using real growth rates, they found that prices had never appreciated nearly as quickly as they had from 2000-2005, and that this trend was unlikely to continue for much longer, i.e. there would be a correction and then mean reversion.  Their thought was that once this correction came about, because of the poor mortgage quality and questionable assumptions/structures in mortgage securities, losses would be much worse than estimated.


Paulson was intent to make one distinction, one that must have been the cause of at least some frustration (followed by fantastic jubilation), that they did their own analysis, they weren’t really trying to attack “the mortgage people’s” views specifically.  Instead, they were trying to understand the conventional wisdom and understand why they had contrary viewpoints.  As myself and countless others have pointed out over the years since, the mortgage industry (I guess we’ll stick with calling them “the mortgage people?”) brushed Paulson off as “inexperienced, as novices in the mortgage market, they were very, very much in the minority...Even our friends thought we were so wrong they felt sorry for us…”


The mortgage people didn’t see any problems because there’d never been a default, except for one manufactured housing (mobile home) deal in the early 1990’s in California.


"The Ratings agencies - Moody's - wouldn’t let you buy protection on securities from a particular state, because they ensured that the pools were geographically diversified, so they were essentially national pools, although California loans had the highest concentrations therein the pools correspond to the level of home sales in each state."


What I found surprising from the interview is that Paulson actually praised the mortgage underwriting/originating practices of the big established banks like Wells Fargo and JP Morgan, which he said generally had the best underwriting standards and controls.  The worst were from the New Centuries and Ameriquests, eclipsed in their lax standards only by the mom & pop type shops who were really just sales businesses who made money on the volume of product they originated and sold to Investment Banks like Lehman and Morgan Stanley that didn’t have their own origination network.


These smaller “rogue” mortgage originators were mostly private entities who weren’t under the same scrutiny of their larger, publically-traded “competition.”  Their sales teams were compensated purely on quantity of loans originated with little-to-no care for quality.  These were the guys who routinely falsified documents, appraisals, incomes, assets and/or encouraged borrowers to do the same.  These were the kind of places that made Countrywide’s standards and controls look almost honorable by comparison.


The FCIC then asked Paulson about the infamous ABACUS debacle.  Paulson’s tone when responding to questions from the FCIC here was so, so, awesome; you could hear it in his voice, like he wanted to just say “are you guys freaking kidding me?  Seriously?!?!  REALLY?!??!” every time they asked him about how CDO’s got made.  He basically said (paraphrasing) “If ACA and IKB or Moody’s didn’t like the ~100 subprime reference securities we helped pick for the deal, they could have…not bought the deal or - get this - replaced them with ones they liked better…I couldn’t have gone short if they hadn’t gone long, they agreed on the reference portfolio, it got rated, boom, done”  It sounded like he just wanted to say something like “Hello morons?!  This is how Finance works, HELLOOO!!!”


The ABACUS conversation ended pretty awkwardly (as you might imagine), and then the FCIC moved onto asking Paulson about his Prime Brokerage relationships and what he thought about the Banks.  Interestingly (to me, at least), Paulson had much of it’s assets with Bear Stearn’s Prime Brokerage primarily because the way Bear was structured , the PB assets were ring-fenced from the rest of Bear’s assets in a separate subsidiary, so even if Bear went down, the PB assets would theoretically be safe.  The rest of Paulson’s assets were with Goldman’s PB.  When Bear’s Cioffi/Tanin-run internal hedge funds failed, Paulson saw that as the proverbial canary in a coal mine; they knew the crap that Bear, Lehman, and everyone else had on their books.  They didn’t pulled all of their cash balances from their prime brokers and set up a contra-account at Bank of New York, where, by the time Lehman went Bankrupt, they were holding most of their assets in Treasuries there.


Next, the FCIC asked him about regulators and banks and what people could (or, better, SHOULD) have done that might have prevented the crisis.  Paulson called out the Fed for not enforcing the mortgage standards that were already in effect.  He mentioned that pre-2000, no-doc loans were only given to people who could put 50% down and only represented about 1% of the mortgage market, but only a few years later, originators were “underwriting” NINJA loans with 100% LTV!


Paulson went on to explain how simple fixes, so-to-speak, just enforcing existing regulations like requiring income/asset verification, that homes were owner-occupied, and a downpayment, as low as 5% would have made a huge difference.  Most of the mortgages that failed didn’t have those characteristics.  Excessive leverage and poor understanding of the credit, problems Paulson also say brought down Bear and lehman.  They were leveraged (total assets: tangible common equity) on average, 35:1.  At that sort of massive leverage, a 3% drop in assets would wipe out every $ of equity!


Even if that ratio was brought down to 12:1 and you increase their capital ratio to 8%, the banks still couldn’t hold some of the riskier, more illiquid assets like Private Equity interests, equity tranches of CDO’s, lower-rated buyout debt from many real estate deals, and other assets that themselves were already highly-leveraged.  Adding further leverage to assets themselves already levered an additional 12:1 is just lunacy.  No financial firm should be able to do that, at max those assets should only be allowed to be levered 2:1 (similar to the max leverage for stocks due to Fed Regulation T).


He went on (this is pretty much verbatim, emphasis mine): “Under those scenarios, I don’t think either bank would default.  AIG FP was absurd and exemplified the derivative market where you can sell protection with zero collateral.  AIG FP Sold $500bn in protection with $5bn collateral, 100:1 collateral.  ACA was collateral agent, they were like 120:1 leveraged.  $50bn protection on $60mm collateral.  You have to hold collateral, we need margin requirements for both buying & selling protection.  It’s not the derivative itself that’s the problem, it was the margin requirements (or lack thereof).  We need something like Reg T (max 2:1 leverage at trade inception).  What these guys did would be like like buying $100 of stocks with $1 of equity, a tiny downward move is a huge loss of equity.  In all, these four things would have likely prevented the crisis:



  1. Mortgage underwriting standards, simple & logical

  2. Higher bank capital ratios

  3. Higher capital against risk assets

  4. Margin requirements against derivatives


Paulson was then asked about the Ratings Agencies and what role they played in the bubble/crisis.  Regular readers know where I stand on them & NRSRO regs, and no surprise, Paulson is similarly critical, particularly of the issuer-pays compensation structure, calling it the perverse incentive that it really is, despite whatever nonsense rhetoric RA executives say.


That, combined with being public (or part of public companies) and they were in this race to keep pace with their competitors, to keep up earnings growth with their derivatives business, which he called a “perverse economic incentive that may have led to their laxness in rating securities”


He went-on to explain this same - in the immortal words of Citi CEO Chuck Prince - “keep dancing while the music’s still playing” - incentive structure led the Banks to take similarly short-sighted actions as they struggled to keep up earnings, growth, and of course, bonuses.  At that point, the only way to do that was to grow their balance sheets, add more leverage to earn spread.  In Paulson’s words “Once things go up like that, you don’t see any downside, so at top of market they just weren’t looking at the downside, just upside, became more and more aggressive until they blew up.”


Paulson said the Fed certaintly could have cracked-down on lax-underwriting standards, eliminated negative-amortization loans, stated-income, 100% LTV, IO’s, etc where most of the problems developed.  On the banks and more broad financial services industry, he said “…people became delusional, ‘we can leverage AAA 100:1…’ if you had margin requirements against derivatives, AIG could have NEVER happenedIf they held higher equity against risky investments, they would have never defaulted. Constructively, that’s what Basel 3 says, 8% equity/capital and higher risk weightings for illiquid risky type assets.  I think adoption of those rules will lead to a safer financial system.”


When asked about the role of Fannie May & Freddie Mac, he pointed out the problem was largely similar to what brought down the banks and AIG: excessive leverage and poor oversight/underwriting. “They deviated from their underwriting standards as a way to gain share in alternate mortgage securities, of poor quality & higher losses.  Second, they were also massively leveraged 80-120:1 if you include on-balance sheet assets & guarantees which is way more than any financial institution should have.”


Yea, I think 120:1 leverage is just a wee bit more than prudent, just a bit though…


From this interview it seems painfully clear that those with whom the safety of the Financial System rested were in a deep coma at the helm, Bank executives, regulators, Congress, institutional money managers, all of them.   It’s clear that the nonsensical argument put-forward by Tom Arnold & Yves Smith that those who were shorting housing, subprime, etc were NOT IN ANY WAY, SHAPE, OR FORM remotely responsible for causing the crisis.  Institutional managers were not gobbling-up BBB-rated RMBS CDO tranches because shops like Paulson & Co were shorting them. Like I said before: they wanted the highest yield they could get away with holding!


As Paulson said, anyone who looked at the data he did should have noticed the impending doom, but apparently, either very, very few people did that type or analysis or they did and just, like Chuck Prince said, kept on dancing until the music stopped.


These traders thought tight spreads indicated safety, which is just wrong in so many ways.  These are the same morons who - thought they should know better - constantly confuse correlation with causation.  Low spreads may have been historically correlated with low default and loss rates, but low spreads do not cause low losses/defaults.  Spreads, like stocks, trade as a function of supply and demand, and all low spreads indicate(d) is that, as Paulson noted, institutional managers were swallowing up as much of these MBS and derivatives (for reasons I explained above), and, like a bunch of lemmings, all thought history would continue despite significant evidence suggesting this time, it was actually different.


One other thing that critics and the public at large probably doesn’t know is that Paulson & Co had a MASSIVE internal, independent research effort wherein they did crazy things like *gasp* look at loan-level data.  Imagine that!  This enabled them to hunt for CDO and other product that contained an inordinate amount of crap for them to short.  This same work also helped them to buy RMBS/CMBS etc when the market turned in 2008 and 2009. They had done the work, and knew what they were willing to pay once it was time to go long.


I’m not saying there’s anything necessarily wrong technical, momentum, and quantitative trading strategies.  There is, however, something very wrong, and very dangerous about relying on these strategies alone while ignoring fundamentals, as evidenced by the housing crisis.  Those who did the hard work like Paulson & Co. made the greatest trade ever, while those who ignored or were otherwise blind to the fundamentals got absolutely crushed.



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RealClearPolitics - The Big <b>News</b> Isn&#39;t Jobs, It&#39;s Wages

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Confirmed: AOL&#39;s Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In

AOL's Patch has acquired hyperlocal news aggregator Outside.In, we've confirmed with Patch's president Warren Webster. It's unclear what the terms of the deal are but Business Insider reported earlier that the acquisition is valued at ...


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RealClearPolitics - The Big <b>News</b> Isn&#39;t Jobs, It&#39;s Wages

March 5, 2011. The Big News Isn't Jobs, It's Wages. Robert Reich, Huffington Post. Tweet. AP Photo. Are we making progress on the jobs front? The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 192000 new jobs in February (220000 new jobs in the ...

» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>

If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...

Confirmed: AOL&#39;s Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In

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RealClearPolitics - The Big <b>News</b> Isn&#39;t Jobs, It&#39;s Wages

March 5, 2011. The Big News Isn't Jobs, It's Wages. Robert Reich, Huffington Post. Tweet. AP Photo. Are we making progress on the jobs front? The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 192000 new jobs in February (220000 new jobs in the ...

» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>

If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...

Confirmed: AOL&#39;s Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In

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RealClearPolitics - The Big <b>News</b> Isn&#39;t Jobs, It&#39;s Wages

March 5, 2011. The Big News Isn't Jobs, It's Wages. Robert Reich, Huffington Post. Tweet. AP Photo. Are we making progress on the jobs front? The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 192000 new jobs in February (220000 new jobs in the ...

» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>

If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...

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March 5, 2011. The Big News Isn't Jobs, It's Wages. Robert Reich, Huffington Post. Tweet. AP Photo. Are we making progress on the jobs front? The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 192000 new jobs in February (220000 new jobs in the ...

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RealClearPolitics - The Big <b>News</b> Isn&#39;t Jobs, It&#39;s Wages

March 5, 2011. The Big News Isn't Jobs, It's Wages. Robert Reich, Huffington Post. Tweet. AP Photo. Are we making progress on the jobs front? The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 192000 new jobs in February (220000 new jobs in the ...

» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>

If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...

Confirmed: AOL&#39;s Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In

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RealClearPolitics - The Big <b>News</b> Isn&#39;t Jobs, It&#39;s Wages

March 5, 2011. The Big News Isn't Jobs, It's Wages. Robert Reich, Huffington Post. Tweet. AP Photo. Are we making progress on the jobs front? The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 192000 new jobs in February (220000 new jobs in the ...

» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>

If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...

Confirmed: AOL&#39;s Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In

AOL's Patch has acquired hyperlocal news aggregator Outside.In, we've confirmed with Patch's president Warren Webster. It's unclear what the terms of the deal are but Business Insider reported earlier that the acquisition is valued at ...


bench craft company

RealClearPolitics - The Big <b>News</b> Isn&#39;t Jobs, It&#39;s Wages

March 5, 2011. The Big News Isn't Jobs, It's Wages. Robert Reich, Huffington Post. Tweet. AP Photo. Are we making progress on the jobs front? The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 192000 new jobs in February (220000 new jobs in the ...

» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>

If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...

Confirmed: AOL&#39;s Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In

AOL's Patch has acquired hyperlocal news aggregator Outside.In, we've confirmed with Patch's president Warren Webster. It's unclear what the terms of the deal are but Business Insider reported earlier that the acquisition is valued at ...


bench craft company

RealClearPolitics - The Big <b>News</b> Isn&#39;t Jobs, It&#39;s Wages

March 5, 2011. The Big News Isn't Jobs, It's Wages. Robert Reich, Huffington Post. Tweet. AP Photo. Are we making progress on the jobs front? The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 192000 new jobs in February (220000 new jobs in the ...

» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>

If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...

Confirmed: AOL&#39;s Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In

AOL's Patch has acquired hyperlocal news aggregator Outside.In, we've confirmed with Patch's president Warren Webster. It's unclear what the terms of the deal are but Business Insider reported earlier that the acquisition is valued at ...


bench craft company

RealClearPolitics - The Big <b>News</b> Isn&#39;t Jobs, It&#39;s Wages

March 5, 2011. The Big News Isn't Jobs, It's Wages. Robert Reich, Huffington Post. Tweet. AP Photo. Are we making progress on the jobs front? The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 192000 new jobs in February (220000 new jobs in the ...

» BOMB THREAT at Scott Walker <b>News</b> Conference–Leftist Protester <b>...</b>

If he had been a known "conservative" or "tea party" member, and if it were a Democrat governor's news conference, this would be the #1 lead item, ahead of Sheen etc, and President you-know-who would have already flown into town (or the ...

Confirmed: AOL&#39;s Patch Buys Hyperlocal <b>News</b> Site Outside.In

AOL's Patch has acquired hyperlocal news aggregator Outside.In, we've confirmed with Patch's president Warren Webster. It's unclear what the terms of the deal are but Business Insider reported earlier that the acquisition is valued at ...



Avoid_foreclosure by JMcMillanRE/MAX




















































Thursday, February 17, 2011

Making Money Uk




Chris Huhne will lead a review into the use of feed-in-tariffs (FITs) in the UK in a bid to end subsidies going to large scale solar farms rather than small scale users.


The Secretary of State for Climate Change acknowledged the successful take-up of photovoltaic panel in Britain so far since the FIT scheme began last year.


Since then 21,000 installations have been registered, with the majority of these apparently having domestic applications.


However Huhne highlighted his concerns that the subsidies were making their way into the pockets of big businesses rather than to small scale users.


 “I have become increasingly concerned about the prospect of large scale solar PV projects under FITs, which was not fully anticipated in the original scheme and could, if left unchecked, take a disproportionate amount of available funding or even break the cap on total funding,” said Huhne.


“Several large solar installations have already received planning permission. Industry projections indicate there could be many more in the planning system.”


Huhne thinks a procedural review may be necessary to address a number of problems.


 “In light of this uncertainty and the risk that such schemes could push FITs uptake off trajectory and may make the Spending Review savings difficult, I have decided to end the potential for damaging speculation and bring forward the review of the Scheme to look at ways of correcting these early teething problems.”


“I recognise that industry needs a long term plan for investment in which it can have full confidence,” he continued.


“Today I am announcing a comprehensive evidence based review in to the FITs scheme and, to provide further certainty to the renewables industry, I can confirm that we also hope to publish next month measures to support renewable heat within the envelope agreed at Spending Review."


The review of FITs will be completed by the end of the year, with tariffs remaining unchanged until April 2012, unless there is specific need for greater urgency.


Some say Huhne may be rather hasty in tinkering with FITs, including Ash Sharma, Research Director at IMS Research.


Talking to TechEye, Sharma says: “While it may mean that installation demand is pulled forward, with many businesses seeking to invest before any changes are implemented, in the long term it may damage both the commercial and residential markets rather than provide any benefits.”


“The government are perhaps concerned that the market may take off to quickly, alongside of course wanting to save money, but this may be too early in the UK market’s growth.  In fact the British market was only around one percent the size of the German one last year, having only had a subsidy programme for eight months.”


Furthermore, the UK is likely to fall even further behind other EU countries.


“We are way behind Germany of course, but we are also falling a long way behind many other countries such as Italy, France, Belgium, Greece and more.”


“This could in fact have a negative effect on the economy rather than helping it, with jobs for installations and distributors going if there is no demand for panels due to unattractive prices.”


“For example if the big businesses are not attracted to countries large scale solar plants then that will have a knock on effect on many others area, such as making component prices more expensive for residential users, which of course consequently means that there is less demand to have panels installed.”








Looks like it is all coming together for mobile NFC, the technology that lets people buy things by simply waving a mobile handset at a point of sale. After years of trials, Orange and payment card provider Barclaycard have finally announced that this summer they will start to roll out a commercial, nationwide NFC service across the UK. But don’t think that means if you’re on the Orange network in the UK that you will be able to use the service from the word go…



In what Orange is hailing as a “revolution” in payments, this will be the UK’s first commercial NFC-based mobile payment service, initially covering some 42,500 stores, including the chains Pret a Manger, EAT and Little Chef, with Co-Op markets coming in the future. The service uses PayPass technology from MasterCard with NFC technology from Gemalto at the terminal end and comes two weeks after it emerged that Orange’s head of NFC, Mung-Ki Woo, was leaving for MasterCard.

See more of our latest Mobile coverage
or add an alert for future coverage of Mobile.



But although Orange is promoting the service going live this summer, this won’t actually mean that if you are an Orange customer—smartphone or otherwise—that you will be able to wave your handset at the nearest Little Chef for a cold beer at the first sign of hot weather.



Since this will be a SIM-based NFC service, Orange will still need to roll out upgraded SIMs; and once you have one of those, you will need to download the relevant apps in order to be able to use them. And it seems the services won’t be usable on all devices, either. Nokia (NYSE: NOK) has rolled out NFC capability in select handsets, and Google’s Nexus S is NFC-enabled, but otherwise there have been few signs from the handset makers of actually building this into their devices en masse—although plenty like to speculate about it.



There’s not much detail yet on how, exactly, this will work in the UK. Orange says in the release that it is “working with the world’s leading handset manufacturers” to enable the service. We have reached out to the company to clarify exactly what that means more specifically.



What you will likely be able to use for the service in the early days is a Barclaycard credit or debit card, if you have one—Barclaycard says that today there are 11.6 million contactless credit and debit cards already in circulation in the UK—“of which over 10 million have been issued by Barclaycard and Barclays.” You will likely also be able to download an app on your phone to link up with that card, but this, of course, is not the same thing as waving a handset.



Nevertheless, the move is a sign of how serious operators are about making sure they are not locked out of making money in the next generation of mobile services. Mobile operators have long been pushing for NFC services that reside on a customer’s SIM card, rather than in the device itself. Their claim is that this provides a more secure solution—although it will also mean that operators can be more involved in customer “ownership” and account management, and all of the revenue generation that will entail. This new service is no exception: the NFC service from Barclaycard and Everything Everywhere will be SIM-based in order to provide a “single point of customer contact” says Orange.



The news comes on the back of several other NFC advances: the next generation of Android devices are also getting equipped for the technology; and Apple is reportedly putting NFC into its next-gen iPhone. Among operators, Orange is also driving an NFC rollout in France; and in the U.S. Verizon, AT&T (NYSE: T) and T-Mobile have formed the Isis JV to also look at how they can roll out the technology.





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Tuesday, February 15, 2011

Making Money Tips


Here’s the latest from VentureBeat’s Entrepreneur Corner.


What makes a great entrepreneur? – There are a lot of characteristics that go into making a startup a success, but attorney Scott Edward Walker, who has worked with entrepreneurs for 15 years, says he has noticed three variables that are always a part of the equation.


How to raise venture capital in a down market – It’s rough raising money today from a VC firm, but Robert Ackerman, founder and managing director of Allegis Capital, says it’s not impossible – and he gives seven pieces of advice to help you get closer to your funding goals.


9 suggestions of startup naming – Naming a company is a task that’s a lot harder than it should be. Some argue it doesn’t matter, but others say it can mean life or death. Serial entrepreneur Dharmesh Shah offers nine rules of thumb to keep in mind when you’re struggling to find the perfect name.


4 ways to boost collaboration in a remote work environment – As more and more companies work from satellite locations and remote sites, office camaraderie is becoming a precious commodity. Joel Bomgar, founder and CEO of Bomgar Corporation, offers four tips on how to bring your team together as a unit – even when they’re far apart geographically.


How should startups pay their attorney? – Even cash-poor entrepreneurs need legal advice when launching new ventures, but how do they pay the bill? Attorney Martin Nichols, in this Entrepreneur Thought Leader Lecture at Stanford University, says it’s not through an equity offer or a seat on the board.


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« British Foreign Office Provided Legal Advice to Free Lockerbie Bomber |

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| Comrade Obama's Egyptian Involvement Goes Way Back »






February 1, 2011



Planned Parenthood Offers to Facilitate Child Prostitution



Posted by Van Helsing at February 1, 2011 12:07 PM



James O'Keefe and Hannah Giles rocked Obama's close friends at ACORN by posing as a pimp and prostitute and going undercover to ascertain that ACORNistas across the country were more than happy to facilitate child prostitution. Ever wonder if the comparably reprehensible pillar of the left-wing establishment Planned Parenthood would take the same attitude? Wonder no longer:



This video reveals a top-level Planned Parenthood worker, the manager of Planned Parenthood of Central New Jersey's second largest clinic, making a secret deal with a pimp. Watch and listen as the Planned Parenthood manager, Amy Woodruff, advises the pimp how to make the trafficking of underage girls look "as legit as possible" (her words). Watch and listen as the manager advises the pimp how to ensure that his 14-year old victims of trafficking can still make money for him after secret abortions by performing sex acts "waist up" (her idea). Watch as she advises the pimp to instruct his girls to lie on the paper work about their ages, and identify themselves as "students" to get cheaper contraception and avoid mandatory reporting laws.



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A former Fox News employees has sat down with Media Matters and revealed what many have been thought to be true for years, that Fox News is a partisan driven propaganda outfit.

Small Business <b>News</b>: Wired and Mobile Entrepreneur Edition

The future, even the present, of small business is wired and mobile. Online digital technology has transformed not just marketing but networking and just about.

Former Fox <b>News</b> Employee Makes Outrageous Claims About Network&#39;s <b>...</b>

Media Matters talks to an anonymous former employee of Fox News who makes the outrageous claims that stuff is just made up and the network's goal is to prop.


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Former Employee Call Fox <b>News</b> A &quot;Propaganda Outfit&quot; | <b>News</b> One

A former Fox News employees has sat down with Media Matters and revealed what many have been thought to be true for years, that Fox News is a partisan driven propaganda outfit.

Small Business <b>News</b>: Wired and Mobile Entrepreneur Edition

The future, even the present, of small business is wired and mobile. Online digital technology has transformed not just marketing but networking and just about.

Former Fox <b>News</b> Employee Makes Outrageous Claims About Network&#39;s <b>...</b>

Media Matters talks to an anonymous former employee of Fox News who makes the outrageous claims that stuff is just made up and the network's goal is to prop.


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Networking on-line is an integral component of today’s business. Employers are busier than ever, and expectations are high, not to mention immediate. To take advantage of this “want it yesterday” mentality, there are several things a professional must consider to effectively activate their on-line networking strategy.

Below are some key suggestions and links to helpful Internet resources.
With the right balance of electronic and human interaction, you will better serve your existing customers and be quick to acquire new ones.

Rules of the Game:

1. Avoid Spamming. Spamming is when you send unsolicited information to one or several individuals on-line. It is the equivalent of “junk mail” in your mailbox, and it can blemish your business reputation with your audience. Most people do not like receiving spam, so it is critical that you only send items that they have “opted-in” to participate and always provide them with an easy method to unsubscribe. Use an e-Newsletter distribution system, rather than sending mass emails from Outlook or other email programs. This will enable you to send personalized messages, manage campaign results and build your business in a positive, professional way. There are many web based applications for you to consider, and they range in costs and services. One that I personally use and have found to be very affordable and user friendly is Constant Contact (www.constantcontact.com).

2. Respect Subscribers Privacy. Clearly state, at the bottom of your message and on your website, how you plan to utilize personal data that is collected. Since identity theft and selling of personal information is of great concern to most on-line citizens, it is important to establish secure and well thought out privacy policies, then actively employ them.

3. Mind Your Frequency. While electronic communications can be incredibly timely, inexpensive and easy to produce - it’s important that you don’t become a nuisance to your customers by over-communicating with them. If you are distributing an e-Newsletter, for example, either provide your subscribers with a preferences setting where they can choose the frequency of contact with your organization or limit your mailings to no more than once per month. In addition, when sending regular email, it is always courteous to give the recipient 24 – 48 hours to respond. It may take longer… remember, these are busy times we live in, and if you are waiting on an important (time-sensitive) response, then it’s better to phone them to discuss the matter or arrange a face-to-face meeting.

4. Net Etiquette (Netiquette). Brush up on your email, IM (instant messaging) & chatting skills. Learn the most commonly used on-line acronyms, abbreviations and electronic correspondence protocol. Reference “Learn the Net’s: Email Etiquette” page at http://www.learnthenet.com/english/html/65mailet.htm or “Net Lingo” at http://www.netlingo.com/emailsh.cfm for more information.

5. Only communicate items that you absolutely don’t mind having in writing. This should be common sense, however many people make the mistake of sending messages which contain sensitive information, include strong emotional tones, create confusion that leads to misinterpretation, etc. You definitely do not want to alienate the people you’re reaching out to, so take your time and extra care when fashioning your message. If you feel distracted or emotionally influenced while writing it, then take a break and come back to it when you’re more relaxed, level headed and thinking clearly.

Methods of On-line Networking:

1. Email. Email is the obvious first choice when you want to communicate directly to your customers over the Internet. Remember to be concise & clear with your message. Also be aware of spam-blocking, internet security & firewall software packages which may prevent your message from reaching the intended recipients.

2. Join a social networking community. There are many to choose from, from Yahoo! Groups to MySpace. The key to these environments is “connecting” and “building relationships”. Remember, don’t just spam and plaster your advertising all over the place. Invest time to interact with your customers, answer questions, provide information and be genuine.

3. E-Newsletters. Create a spot on your website where new subscribers can register to receive your periodic communications. Then deliver your content on time and at the intervals you promised. Bring value to your message by providing something more than just a sales pitch. Offer discounts, promotions, links to goodies (images, screensavers, downloads, etc.) that will entice the reader to interact and respond to your call to action.

4. Instant Messaging. Be careful with this one, as it can become an overwhelming nuisance if uncontrolled. As opposed to email, IMing makes you available to customers immediately while you’re on-line (and visible). IM tools are great because you can usually transfer files, add multiple people to a ‘group IM’ and keep track of individuals on your buddy list. If you use multiple versions of IM software (such as MSN, Yahoo!, ICQ, AOL IM, etc.) then consider downloading Trillian which allows you to access all of those programs from one interface. You can find out more about that free software here: http://www.download.com/3000-2150-10047473.html . But remember, if you find yourself “hiding” or putting up your “away” message more often than not, you are defeating the purpose of using such software.

5. Virtual Conferences. This is an especially attractive option with ever increasing gas/fuel prices and travel expenses. Whether you are dealing with clients across town or around the globe, it doesn’t take much to set up a virtual conference, and you’ll save time & money in the process. Some of the easiest programs to use are WebEx (www.webex.com) and GoToMeeting (www.gotomeeting.com).

6. Contact Management. In any business environment it’s very important that you keep all of your contact information up to date and conveniently accessible. Plaxo is one of the most well known web based contact management programs (which integrates with Outlook & Outlook Express) and performs their time-saving services free of charge (basic version). Plaxo securely updates and maintains information in your address book, and gives you the tools with which to share your information with over ten million existing Plaxo members. So, there’s a good chance that your friends, family, customers & business partners are already a part of the Plaxo network. Find more details at www.plaxo.com .

7. Chat / Forum Hosting. Many businesses are now including chat & forum options on their corporate websites to foster more frequent communication between themselves and their customers. The important consideration here is that your business has the resources to maintain such areas, keeping them fresh and current. Maintaining an empty chat room or sparse bulletin board serves no purpose other than taking up space and making your site seem outdated or unpopular. However, scheduling interesting topical chats at different dates/times during the month or engaging participants in a lively forum, can truly turn your site into a “community” rather than just an on-line billboard. Check with your local ISP (Internet Service Provider) to see if they offer enhancements such as chat rooms and bulletin boards for your web site. Many provide these services free of charge as well.

By taking advantage of these great on-line opportunities, you can enhance your current networking relationships and reach out to your audience in a convenient and immediate way. They will definitely appreciate you joining them in the 21st century, and offering them ways to communicate in the varying digital formats that they prefer.

Lori St-Germain is a freelancer who lives in the Adirondack mountain region of upstate New York. She is an accomplished writer, graphic/web designer and dedicated wife. She has two children (miniature schnauzers) named Scooter and Radar. To contact the author, please write to lori@jingledog.com .